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アメリカのQE担当者の懺悔

Fedの量的緩和(QE)の実務を担当した前職員の告白がアメリカで話題になっています。

FedはQEをMain Street(一般産業・社会)の救済手段としているが、実のところはWall Street(金融業界)救済の抜け道だったと指摘しています。

I can only say: I'm sorry, America. …The central bank continues to spin QE as a tool for helping Main Street. But I've come to recognize the program for what it really is: the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time.

バーナンキ議長はQEの目的を、リーマンショック後の急激な信用収縮(クレジットクランチ)を緩和して家計や企業の借入を容易にすることとしていました。

Chairman Ben Bernanke made clear that the Fed's central motivation was to "affect credit conditions for households and businesses": to drive down the cost of credit so that more Americans hurting from the tanking economy could use it to weather the downturn. For this reason, he originally called the initiative "credit easing."

しかしながら、銀行貸出は伸びず、金利低下も限定的でした。

Despite the Fed's rhetoric, my program wasn't helping to make credit any more accessible for the average American. The banks were only issuing fewer and fewer loans. More insidiously, whatever credit they were extending wasn't getting much cheaper.

f:id:prof_nemuro:20131115015423g:plain

Fedの関心は金融市場の反応だけになってしまったようです。

Now the only obsession seemed to be with the newest survey of financial-market expectations or the latest in-person feedback from Wall Street's leading bankers and hedge-fund managers. Sorry, U.S. taxpayer.

Fedも外部の専門家も、QEの経済刺激効果は微々たるものと推計しています。

Even by the Fed's sunniest calculations, aggressive QE over five years has generated only a few percentage points of U.S. growth. By contrast, experts outside the Fed, such as Mohammed El Erian at the Pimco investment firm, suggest that the Fed may have created and spent over $4 trillion for a total return of as little as 0.25% of GDP (i.e., a mere $40 billion bump in U.S. economic output). Both of those estimates indicate that QE isn't really working.

Fedの「補助金」は、証券価格の上昇等を通じて巨大銀行に巨額の利益をもたらしましたが、メインストリートには流れませんでした。

Having racked up hundreds of billions of dollars in opaque Fed subsidies, U.S. banks have seen their collective stock price triple since March 2009. The biggest ones have only become more of a cartel: 0.2% of them now control more than 70% of the U.S. bank assets.

QEはウォールストリートの巨大銀行の救済手段と化してしまったという結論です。

Case in point: It has allowed QE to become Wall Street's new "too big to fail" policy.

CNBCにも出演して同じ趣旨を語っています。

0.2%の銀行に70%の資産が集中している弊害を指摘しています。

"By virtue of reflating the markets, we've potentially taken the emphasis out of breaking up what is ultimately a banking cartel in the United States," he said, adding that "0.2 percent of banks control 70 percent of assets in this country."

アメリカと日本では量的緩和が導入された経済環境や(表向きの)目的も異なりますが、経済刺激効果などの点では参考になるのではないでしょうか。

国家対巨大銀行―金融の肥大化による新たな危機

国家対巨大銀行―金融の肥大化による新たな危機

異論があればWSJにコメント投稿することをお勧めします。


Bond-Buying Spree: Wall Street 'feasts' while ...

 

追記:McKinsey & CompanyがQEの総括レポートを発表しました。

We found little evidence that ultra-low interest rates have boosted equity markets. We cannot discern a large-scale shift into equities as part of a search for yield by investors, and price-earnings ratios and price-book ratios in stock markets are no higher than long-term averages. Although stock prices do react to announcements by central banks, these are transitory effects that do not persist.

QEに株高効果は確認できないとしています。