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貨幣乗数を否定するイングランド銀行

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過去記事では、日本銀行批判の理論的根拠となっている貨幣乗数モデルが虚構であることを説明しましたが、この度のイングランド銀行四季報でも、そのことについて詳しく説明されています。(強調は引用者)

貨幣乗数モデルでは、マネタリーベースの増分が乗数倍(multiply up)されてマネーストックを増加させるとされていますが、現実はそので、銀行貸出によってマネーストックが増え、それがマネタリーベース増を誘発します。また、銀行貸出はマネタリーベースの量に制約されていません。

In reality, neither are reserves a binding constraint on lending, nor does the central bank fix the amount of reserves that are available. As with the relationship between deposits and loans, the relationship between reserves and loans typically operates in the reverse way to that described in some economics textbooks.

So, in reality, the theory of the money multiplier operates in the reverse way to that normally described.

量的緩和QE)についても、銀行は超過準備を貸し出せないことや、超過準備増加が銀行に貸出増のインセンティブを与えるわけではないことなど、よくある誤解に答えています。

Importantly, the reserves created in the banking sector (Figure 3, third row) do not play a central role. This is because, as explained earlier, banks cannot directly lend out reserves. Reserves are an IOU from the central bank to commercial banks. Those banks can use them to make payments to each other, but they cannot ‘lend’ them on to consumers in the economy, who do not hold reserves accounts. …

Moreover, the new reserves are not mechanically multiplied up into new loans and new deposits as predicted by the money multiplier theory. QE boosts broad money without directly leading to, or requiring, an increase in lending. While the first leg of the money multiplier theory does hold during QE — the monetary stance mechanically determines the quantity of reserves — the newly created reserves do not, by themselves, meaningfully change the incentives for the banks to create new broad money by lending.

QE works by circumventing the banking sector, aiming to increase private sector spending directly.

日銀がマネタリーベースを積極的に増やせば、速やかに経済停滞から脱却できると主張していた中央銀行万能論者には特にお勧めです。 

追記

イングランド銀行の解説に好意的な記事

www.theguardian.com

What this means is that the real limit on the amount of money in circulation is not how much the central bank is willing to lend, but how much government, firms, and ordinary citizens, are willing to borrow. Government spending is the main driver in all this (and the paper does admit, if you read it carefully, that the central bank does fund the government after all). So there's no question of public spending "crowding out" private investment. It's exactly the opposite. 

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