Think outside the box



経済危機はReinhartとRogoffが主張していた過剰な政府債務ではなく、過剰な民間債務によって引き起こされる、とするVagueの著書"The Next Economic Disaster"が注目されています。Vagueによる紹介記事があったので紹介します。

Government Debt Isn't the Problem—Private Debt Is - The Atlantic

To put a finer point on it: For major economies, if the ratio of private debt to GDP is at least 150 percent, and if that ratio grows by at least 18 percent over the course of five years, then a big crisis is likely in the offing.




"The Next Economic Disaster"で注目されているのは、中国の民間債務が危険レベルまで高まっていることです。シャドーバンキングの存在など不透明な点は多々ありますが、Vagueは対GDP比で200%に迫っていると推計しています。政府の介入によって数年は先延ばしできるかもしれませんが、非常に危惧される状況です。バブルが崩壊すれば、日本に大きな影響が及ぶことは確実です。

The numbers for China include “shadow lending” but are somewhat difficult to pin down, and I have seen differing numbers for the current level of private debt in China that range from 167 percent to 200+ percent. But in all cases, the recent five-year private debt to GDP growth trends are above 40 percent.) To be sure, China, by virtue of the government’s large role in the economy, its fiscal assets, and other distinctive features, could forestall the day of reckoning a few years yet. Still the broader picture—extremely high private-debt levels—is alarming.


The Next Economic Disaster: Why It's Coming and ...


China's economic boom leaves a trail of ghost cities |

Getting Under the Skin of Kangbashi: China’s Ghost City | The Bohemian Blog

The Next Economic Disaster: Why It's Coming and How to Avoid It

The Next Economic Disaster: Why It's Coming and How to Avoid It



国債がデフォルトしないことの常識的な説明 - Think outside the box

国家は(計算間違いで)破綻する? - Think outside the box