Think outside the box



The Economistに、中央銀行の低金利政策の設備投資誘発効果が乏しいことについての記事が掲載されています。

Monetary policy: Tight, loose, irrelevant | The Economist

紹介されているペーパー"The behavior of aggregate corporate investment"のConclusionsから引用します。

Our tests show that expected investment growth is tightly linked to changes in profits and stock prices but only weakly related to changes in interest rates, stock volatility, and the default spread. […] We also find no evidence that investment growth slows after a rise in short-term or long-term interest rates, contrary to the idea that Federal-Reserve-driven movements in interest rates have a first-order impact on corporate investment.*1


New research: interest rate cuts don't shift corporate investment - MIT Sloan School of Management 

Based on nearly 60 years of data, “what we find is that moving the interest rate by one or two percent does not generate a change in investment behavior on the part of corporations,” says Kothari. 

Low interest rates didn’t spur corporations to invest, nor did high rates seem to inhibit them from investing, suggesting that “cheap” outside capital is of limited importance in investment decisions.


“What corporations really respond to is what sort of profit outlook they face, and the general environment for growth,”



50年後の日本、60%が「暗いと思う」 若者世代に多く 内閣府世論調査 - 産経ニュース



金利低下の投資誘発効果は乏しい - Think outside the box

某国経済の診断 - Think outside the box

日本経済に迫り来る「1945年」 - Think outside the box