Think outside the box

MAKE JAPAN GREAT AGAIN

ホワイトが金融危機の再来を警告

国際決済銀行(BIS)のチーフエコノミストを務めていたウィリアム・ホワイトは、資産価格バブルが金融危機を引き起こすことを予測していた数少ない専門家の一人です。


The Man Nobody Wanted to Hear: Global Banking Economist Warned of Coming Crisis - SPIEGEL ONLINE

そのホワイトが、現在の世界経済は、リーマンショック前よりも危険な状態にあると警告しています。


Central bank prophet fears QE warfare pushing world financial system out of control - Telegraph 

He said the global elastic has been stretched even further than it was in 2008 on the eve of the Great Recession. The excesses have reached almost every corner of the globe, and combined public/private debt is 20pc of GDP higher today. "We are holding a tiger by the tail," he said.

先日のECBの量的緩和にも悲観的な見通しを示しているほか、日本に関しては日銀による「マネタイゼーション」がハイパーインフレをもたらす可能性にまで言及しています。

Mr White said QE is a disguised form of competitive devaluation. "The Japanese are now doing it as well but nobody can complain because the US started it," he said.

"There is a significant risk that this is going to end badly because the Bank of Japan is funding 40pc of all government spending. This could end in high inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation. 

量的緩和の有効性にも疑問を呈しています。量的緩和の支持者は相関関係と因果関係を混同しているとのことです。

He deplores the rush to QE as an "unthinking fashion". Those who argue that the US and the UK are growing faster than Europe because they carried out QE early are confusing "correlation with causality". The Anglo-Saxon pioneers have yet to pay the price. "It ain't over until the fat lady sings. There are serious side-effects building up and we don't know what will happen when they try to reverse what they have done." 

中央銀行が目先の成長率引き上げに汲々とする→低すぎる実質金利常態化→過剰債務→金融危機とデフレの種がまかれる、という構図です。*1

… global central banks were falling into a trap by holding real rates too low in the 1990s, effectively stealing growth from the future through "intertemporal" effects.

The painful irony is that central banks may have brought about exactly what they most feared by trying to keep growth buoyant at all costs, he argues, and not allowing productivity gains to drive down prices gently as occurred in episodes of the 19th century. "They have created so much debt that they may have turned a good deflation into a bad deflation after all." 

バブルとその崩壊の規模と頻度が激しくなっている背景には、中央銀行まで成果主義・短期主義に蝕まれていることがあるのでしょうか。


中央銀行がはまった罠 - Think outside the box


William White: Are Central Bankers Trying To Do Too Much? - YouTube


William White - Anatomy of Crisis: Economic Theory, Politics and Policy - YouTube


さらに金融緩和を、国債まだ買える 原田泰・早大教授:朝日新聞デジタル


QQEとMMT - Think outside the box

*1:地道なトレーニング(生産性向上)ではなく、ドーピング(実質低金利→資産インフレ)で好成績を達成するようなもの。いずれ、ドーピングの副作用が出てくることは避けられません。