Think outside the box

MAKE JAPAN GREAT AGAIN

超過準備~クルーグマンとクー

クルーグマンは日本に「おカネをもっと刷」れと言っています。

gendai.ismedia.jp

日本には十分な国内資産があるため、ギリシャのようにデフォルトの懸念にさらされることはありません。それより重要なのはおカネをもっと刷って、デフレから完全に脱却することなのです。

f:id:prof_nemuro:20150614231149g:plain

超過準備とインフレ率を比較してみます。超過準備増加がインフレ率を引き上げる関係は見られるでしょうか。

f:id:prof_nemuro:20150614231147g:plain

www.businessinsider.com

www.businessinsider.com

But Krugman also believes in monetary policy -- he was an advocate of aggressive QE -- while Koo thinks that monetary policy (especially now) is useless.

量的緩和の効果についてクルーグマンと対立していたクーは、著書で以下のように記しています。

The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japans Great Recession

The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics: Lessons from Japans Great Recession

Even though quantitative easing failed to produce the expected results, the belief that monetary policy is always effective persists among economists in Japan and elsewhere. To these economists, quantity easing did not fail: it simply was not tried hard enough. According to this view, if boosting the excess reserves of commercial banks to ¥25 trillion has no effect, then we should try injecting ¥50 trillion, or ¥100 trillion.

At the risk of belaboring the obvious, imagine a patient in the hospital who takes a drug prescribed by her doctor, but does not react as the doctor expected, and, more importantly, does not get better. When she reports back to the doctor, he tells her to double the dosage. But this does not help, either. So he orders her to take four times, eight times, and finally a hundred times the original dosage. All to no avail. Under these circumstances, any normal human being would come to the conclusion that the doctor's original diagnosis was wrong, and that the patient suffered from a different disease.*1

超過準備は100兆円をはるかに超えていますが、それでも不足しているというのがクルーグマンの主張です。クルーグマンが"normal human being"なのかが気になるところです。

おまけ

ドイツのデータから、予想インフレ率上昇が家計消費を刺激することが示されたの研究です。

大いに疑問を感じさせる結論ですが、

A series of pre-announced VAT increases and a simultaneous reduction in income tax rates would result in a predictable increase in inflation without inducing additional uncertainty, would increase consumer spending today, and would not lead to higher budget deficits, all while keeping the total tax burden of households the same.

経済強者と経済弱者では予想インフレ率上昇への反応が異なる(→弱者向け対応策が必要)との指摘は参考になります。

We find that the effect is significantly stronger for the more educated heads of household, for higher-income households, for households living in larger cities, and for working-age heads of household.

…, lower-income, lower-educated, and retired households, living in rural areas – should be targeted with specific communicative efforts so that the policy measures indeed deliver their full potential.

totb.hatenablog.com

totb.hatenablog.com

*1:下線は引用者