しかしながら、中銀当座預金（の一部）へのマイナス金利（negative interest rate）の適用の先行事例からは、日銀の思惑通りには事が進まないのではないか、という懸念も生じます。
The aim in the eurozone is to stimulate economic growth and to raise inflation, which is also below zero and even further adrift of the European Central Bank's target of below but close to 2%. In Sweden too, it is about raising inflation.
In Denmark and Switzerland the immediate objective has been to prevent the currency rising too much. The idea of lower and negative interest rates is to discourage investors from buying the local currency, which tends to push its value up.
According to Scandinavia’s biggest bank, the extreme measure only helps central banks defending a currency regime. For those trying to stimulate the economy, negative rates are the wrong tool. That’s good news for Denmark and Switzerland, and bad news for the euro zone, Japan and Sweden.
“We have learned that a negative interest rate is a tool that works to weaken one’s currency but it doesn’t work to stimulate lending,” Helge Pedersen, chief economist at Nordea in Copenhagen, said by phone. “In Denmark, the negative interest rates have worked because the goal was to defend to currency policy.”
But in the euro area, “negative rates really haven’t been a success story,” Pedersen said. Policy makers there are getting “more and more desperate” and the European Central Bank risks “getting stuck in a vicious circle.”
So the introduction of negative interest achieved an important objective. Lower interest rates make Swiss franc investments less attractive compared to foreign investments. […] , if all other factors remain the same, there is less demand for investments in Switzerland – and thus for Swiss francs – when Swiss interest rates decline.
The Committee believes that there are no technical obstacles to reducing Bank Rate, including to below zero in which case banks would pay for holding reserves at the Bank of England. There are, however, limitations to the extent to which the rate of interest on reserves could be held below zero without inducing significant substitution into cash. Lowering Bank Rate from its present level could also have adverse consequences on bank profitability and the supply of credit, thus moderating the impact on aggregate demand
世界銀行の昨年の"Global Economic Prospects"でも、マイナス金利には望ましくない影響があるとの指摘がされています。
In addition to these effects that are largely intended by policy makers, negative nominal interest rates may have undesirable side effects on financial stability and capital market functioning.
- Erosion of bank profitability.
- Pressures on non-bank financial institutions.
- Anomalies in the valuation of returns and payments streams.
- Excessive risk-taking.